Mario and I had a bit of an argument yesterday. He thought that the Raiders had to pick Calvin Johnson today, and I thought they had to go with JaMarcus Russell. I do think that Johnson will be a better pro, but there's no doubt Russell has very intriguing upside. The real problem I would have had with the Raiders drafting Johnson is they have no throw him the ball.
Anyway, Mario's argument was that the Raiders could either get Daunte Culpepper when the Dolphins cut him (and that doesn't look like it's going to happen now. I need some Sal insight on why the Dolphins passed on Quinn) or draft a quarterback later in the draft. That got me thinking if it really was that easy for a team to draft a quarterback in the later rounds and develop him into a starter.
So what I did was look at the quarterbacks of record from 2006 and what round they were drafted in. I decided the quarterback of record by awarding a win or loss to the quarterback with the highest number of pass attempts plus rushes/sacks. Anyway, I realize the problems -- namely that I'm only looking at one year, the draft is an inexact science and football is probably the most team-oriented game -- but there were some interesting things.
Of the 56 quarterbacks who "decided" a game, the group with the most by far were 1st round picks -- 23. The next highest group was undrafted quarterbacks with nine, which was somewhat of a surprise to me. 1st round quarterbacks had a record of 145-115, meaning that those taken later in the draft or undrafted were 111-141. As far as the best winning percentage? The 6th round, of course. 6th round quarterbacks won 58.7 percent of their games (27-19) thanks largely to Tom Brady and Matt Hasselbeck.
But I digress. Did this decide the argument? Not really. It does seem that 1st round quarterbacks are more likely to play more games and 1st or 2nd round quarterbacks are more likely to be winning quarterbacks (171-135 record in 2006), but one year of data doesn't prove anything. I think what the Raiders did was take the safest pick, but we won't know if it was a good pick until their careers are over.
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Here we are playing Sunday afternoon GM, and I'm certain that the statistic that matters most is wins. As Davey mentioned, there are several advantages and disadvantages that accompany a first round Quaterback or Wide Receiver for that matter.
In the case of Russell versus Johnson, it becomes a question of which one has a greater influence on his respective team sooner?
David Carr is a great quaterback (regardless as to his record, accomplishments or the lack thereof). However, when put into a porous system, even the greats are regaled to dismal status.
Less we forget that Mr. Manning won a single game his rookie year, but there was a commitment to surrounding him with better and more talented veterans and players alike. This is what Granddaddy Davis will ultimately have to do with recently acquired Russell.
Russell can flick the pigskin 70 yards, and has the physical skill set to make defenders miss even when given a vip pass at him. However, even he is susceptible to the rigor of professional defensive lines.
Johnson will be given the opportunity to shine right away along side Roy Williams, and because of it, he'll be in a prime position to take home the award by the same name of his teammate ROY!
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